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Method

Every State Reach engagement starts with the company's decision. Checked sources, qualitative and quantitative methods, risk assessment where relevant and human review support a comparison of options and decision conditions.

Where external events reach the business

Where external events reach the business

How an external event reaches the business.

The same event can affect several operations. The analysis follows only the links that matter to the decision at hand.

Thirty contextual factors, five business consequencesProduction and continuity; Deliveries and supply; Payments and contracts; Market access; Investment and capital. Illustrative links without quantitative values.01 · Agreements and incentivesTrade agreementsInvestment incentivesSector agreementsRules of originIndustrial priorities02 · SanctionsCounterparty listsTransaction limitsImport bansSector restrictionsAsset freezes03 · Export controlsExport licencesDual-use technologiesDestination and end userRe-export restrictionsSupport and spare parts04 · Credit and paymentsTrade creditBanks and intermediariesInsurance coverageCurrencies and liquidityContract terms05 · Information and cyberData accessNetwork availabilityIntellectual propertyDigital dependenciesInformation reliability06 · Routes and securityTransport corridorsStraits and chokepointsCritical logistics nodesBorder controlsTerritorial securityProduction and continuityAvailability of technology, energy,components and support.Deliveries and supplyTiming, logistics capacity and accessto routes.Payments and contractsAbility to pay, receive payments andhonour commitments.Market accessConditions for buying, selling andoperating in a country.Investment and capitalProject feasibility and conditions ofthe financial commitment.
  1. Agreements and incentives

    • Trade agreements → Payments and contracts · Market access
    • Investment incentives → Production and continuity · Investment and capital
    • Sector agreements → Production and continuity · Market access
    • Rules of origin → Deliveries and supply · Market access
    • Industrial priorities → Production and continuity · Investment and capital
  2. Sanctions

    • Counterparty lists → Payments and contracts · Market access
    • Transaction limits → Payments and contracts
    • Import bans → Deliveries and supply · Market access
    • Sector restrictions → Production and continuity · Market access
    • Asset freezes → Payments and contracts · Investment and capital
  3. Export controls

    • Export licences → Production and continuity · Deliveries and supply
    • Dual-use technologies → Production and continuity · Investment and capital
    • Destination and end user → Deliveries and supply · Market access
    • Re-export restrictions → Deliveries and supply · Market access
    • Support and spare parts → Production and continuity
  4. Credit and payments

    • Trade credit → Payments and contracts
    • Banks and intermediaries → Payments and contracts · Market access
    • Insurance coverage → Deliveries and supply · Payments and contracts
    • Currencies and liquidity → Payments and contracts · Investment and capital
    • Contract terms → Payments and contracts · Investment and capital
  5. Information and cyber

    • Data access → Production and continuity · Market access
    • Network availability → Production and continuity · Deliveries and supply
    • Intellectual property → Production and continuity · Investment and capital
    • Digital dependencies → Production and continuity
    • Information reliability → Payments and contracts · Investment and capital
  6. Routes and security

    • Transport corridors → Deliveries and supply
    • Straits and chokepoints → Deliveries and supply · Payments and contracts
    • Critical logistics nodes → Production and continuity · Deliveries and supply
    • Border controls → Deliveries and supply · Market access
    • Territorial security → Production and continuity · Investment and capital
  1. Production and continuity

    Availability of technology, energy, components and support.

  2. Deliveries and supply

    Timing, logistics capacity and access to routes.

  3. Payments and contracts

    Ability to pay, receive payments and honour commitments.

  4. Market access

    Conditions for buying, selling and operating in a country.

  5. Investment and capital

    Project feasibility and conditions of the financial commitment.

Analytical framework

The framework governing State Reach assessments.

The State Reach framework sets rules for checking sources, selecting methods and reviewing conclusions. These rules are common to all engagements; the expertise and analysis required vary with the decision.

STATE REACH ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK05 PHASES / 06 COMPONENTS
CROSS-CUTTING LAYERSource checks throughout; methods and risk assessment where relevant.
DECISION ROUTEFrom the initial decision to conditions for proceeding.
PLATFORM AND INFRASTRUCTUREMaterials, tools and permissions.
ANALYTICAL OVERSIGHTHuman review and traceable steps.
AI in the loop · OODA · human review.

How to read the recommendation.

Management receives a reasoned comparison of the alternatives. The recommendation sets out what still needs checking and the conditions that would call for a new assessment.

The assessment gives the teams involved a common basis for discussing the commitment. Management can see which checks remain and which events would call for a review.

How sources and data are checked.

Each fact is checked against its original source, date, scope and corroboration. The assessment separates documented facts from assumptions and identifies conclusions that require more information.

The economic assessment uses the company's available data and states its limits. Missing information is identified along with the analyses needed to complete it.

How information enters the assessment
  1. 01

    Information without sufficient corroboration

    To be confirmed

    Check

    The report is checked against its original source and independent corroboration.

    Contribution to the decision

    The report is not treated as established fact; its possible bearing on the decision remains explicitly uncertain.

  2. 02

    Conflicting sources

    Open conflict

    Check

    Dates, the subject of each source and interests that may influence it are compared.

    Contribution to the decision

    The assessment shows where sources disagree and explains the interpretation adopted. If the evidence is insufficient, it presents both interpretations.

  3. 03

    Business information to complete

    Missing data

    Check

    Available data, their period and comparable units are checked before the missing data are requested.

    Contribution to the decision

    Estimates remain tied to the data actually available. If those are insufficient, the document specifies what is needed to quantify the economic effects.

  4. 04

    Specialist reviews

    Specialist review

    Check

    The assessment identifies matters requiring review by a professional in the relevant field.

    Contribution to the decision

    Management can see which matters have been assessed and which need a specialist before proceeding.

The roles of tools and analysts

Technology supports research and the organisation of information. Analysts examine sources, assumptions and conclusions; the decision remains with company management.

From digital support to the business decision
  1. 01

    Digital tools

    They identify relevant materials and organise them for subsequent comparisons.

    Research and organisation of materials
  2. 02

    Analytical control

    Analysts check original sources, examine links to the company's operations and distinguish facts from assumptions and missing information.

    Checked by analysts
  3. 03

    Integrated assessment

    The synthesis connects verified facts to available options and explains the assessment in relation to the decision the business must make.

    Coordination and quality of the synthesis
  4. 04

    The business decision

    The business uses the assessment to decide, taking account of its objectives, available resources and the risks it is prepared to accept.

    Business choice and implementation
Expertise

How an engagement is defined

The enquiry sets out the decision, context and constraints. State Reach proposes a suitable engagement and identifies the information needed to begin.

The proposal defines the decision under review, the relevant activities and geographies, the data needed, the timeline and the deliverable. It also specifies which specialist checks and updates are included.

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